Chief meteorologist Stephen Cropper's winter weather forecast

The winter of 2016-2017 brought some mild days to western Pennsylvania. In fact, it was one of the top 10 warmest winters on record, highlighted by nearly 70-degree temperatures the day after Christmas. The winter of 2017-2018 promises to be similar, but not quite the same.

Severe Weather Team 11 Chief Meteorologist Stephen Cropper has predicted a wetter and warmer than average winter, with plenty of precipitation and more snow than 2016-2017.

The winter of 2016-2017 brought 32 inches of snow. Cropper has forecast closer to 43 inches of snow for 2017-2018, which is a more typical winter for western Pennsylvania, and just above the average of 42 inches.

It's not just snow people need to think about in western Pennsylvania. Big temperature swings could also mean more ice.

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It's hard to pin down exact snowfall totals for an entire season, and it comes down to the day-to-day rhythms of the weather and the track of individual storms. One big storm could send totals up. That's why Cropper looked at overall trends and what could drive winter systems. In 2017-2018, La Nina will be a player, but it will be weak, and it's just one piece of the winter puzzle.

Western Pennsylvania can get winter storms from the south, storms from the east, clippers from Canada and lake-effect snow. That makes the area one of the most complex places for forecasting winter weather in the United States.

Chief Meteorologist Stephen Cropper said when it comes to snow impact for the 2017-2018 winter, look for a slow start to the season. That means the first accumulating snow will hold off until late November or even early December. When it comes to accumulating snow - that's storms bringing an inch or more - expect to see about a dozen. Most of the storms that move through will come from Alberta Clippers: they drop a quick 1 to 3 inches. You can plan to see just enough snow to slow commutes or cause school delays if the storms hit in the early morning or late afternoon. And when the winter hits its peak in January and February, we'll see the most snow.

Based on records, Cropper believes we're due for a bigger snow of more than 6 inches. And that snow could be the hard-to-move, heavy, wet snow that causes school cancellations. That will happen if the winter recipe of cold air and moisture can connect.

Winter means cold air, but the temperatures for 2017-2018 will trend warmer than average, with a handful of days when temperatures will struggle to get out of the teens. January and February will be the coldest months, but a few warm temperature records could also make it into the books this season.

Cox Media Group