Chief Meteorologist Stephen Cropper’s 2024-2025 winter weather forecast

Winters here appear to be changing and Pittsburghers are noticing the trend.

We already got our first accumulating snow, so will this winter be different?

Stephen Cropper found a wetter winter storm track this year will give us a better shot at a snowier season, but we’ll likely only see about 35 inches.

“We certainly aren’t getting the winters we used to get here,” said Greg Bolar who works at the UPMC Rink at PPG Place. “We used to have heavy snowfalls of 6 to 8 inches, snowmageddon isn’t anything we’ve seen recently.”

“I think winters are getting shorter. They’re starting later,” said Dr. Judah Cohen, a climatologist who studies weather patterns.

Dr. Cohen has been watching winters for decades and agrees winter is getting warmer with less long-term cold and snowy weather.

“Days are warmer I think that is part of the story,” Dr. Cohen said. “But there’s also been a lot of high impact, you know very severe winter weather events.”

Think December 2022 - a temperature plunge of 45 degrees in just a few hours.

Something Dr. Cohen calls “weather whiplash” compliments of the polar vortex.

Since winters are warmer, the polar vortex is playing a bigger role in what we get. If it’s strong, we tend to have milder winters but when the center of circulation gets weak it spreads south and we feel the cold.

“I try to use the term stretched or pull of the vortex we get more severe winter weather and that includes cold and snow,” Dr. Cohen said.

The problem is predictability and that makes the polar vortex the wildcard in our winter forecast. When we get the cold we get a better chance of snow. But missing it means more rain or a wintry mix.

Timing is everything with winter forecasting and warmer winters are making it harder to get that cold air connection we need for snow.

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