Fantasy Football Week 11 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em

Fantasy football sit-and-start advice should always be relative and league-dependent. Many starts and sits are obvious too, so we will instead focus on fringe options in this column, the ones that take real thought. Good luck with your Week 11 lineups!

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

Start: Josh Jacobs

Jacobs remains due for further touchdown regression, and he gets a run-funnel Chicago defense this week. The Bears have allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks but the eighth-most RB rushing yards per game (111.6). Caleb Williams' dramatic struggles (the Bears have gone 23 straight drives without a touchdown) could help lead to a positive game script, as Green Bay enters 5.5-point favorites. Jacobs has averaged 100.0 yards from scrimmage and scored all four of his touchdowns during wins this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions

Start: David Montgomery

Montgomery has been quieter during a tougher stretch of schedule over the last four games, but his upcoming matchups look highly favorable, starting Sunday. Jacksonville has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs and enter as 14-point underdogs with Mac Jones starting. The Lions have the highest implied team total (30.5 points) this week, and game script should lead to a ton of carries.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins

Start: Jonnu Smith

Smith's snap share dropped a bit Monday night, but he was second on Miami in receiving yards and nearly scored a touchdown while being tackled at the one. Smith is tied for second on the Dolphins in first-read target% over five games with Tua Tagovailoa this season. Smith leads all tight ends in first downs per route run, which is one of the best future indicators. Las Vegas has yielded the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends and is a pass-funnel defense. Raiders' opponents have the second highest pass rate over expectation (+4.4%) this season.

Tagovailoa ranks 36th in deep throw attempt rate (7.7%) and sports the lowest average intended air yards (5.4) among all quarterbacks this season. That's been bad news for Tyreek Hill, but Smith has benefitted and can be started in fantasy lineups.

Los Angeles Rams @ New England Patriots

Start: Drake Maye

Maye leads the NFL in QB rush yards, scrambles and scramble yards since taking over as New England's starter. He's averaged more yards per scramble (10.8) than Jayden Daniels while ranking top 10 in Hero Throw rate and Off-Target throw rate. The Rams have allowed just 72.8 rushing yards and zero touchdowns to running backs since Week 5, but Los Angeles has ceded the second-most YPA (8.4).

The Rams have the league's third best pressure rate, but Maye's fantasy production has actually increased when pressured this season; the rookie has the fourth-most fantasy points per dropback when pressured. Maye is a sneaky fantasy start if needed this week.

Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints

Start: Nick Chubb

Chubb may not be the player he once was, but he’s seen 75% of Cleveland’s RB carries over three games since returning. He’s faced three tough run defenses that rank top eight in RB fantasy points allowed, but Chubb gets a much more favorable matchup this week. The Browns are (minor) favorites against a Saints’ defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to running backs. And most of the damage has come via the ground not by receiving backs, as New Orleans has yielded 5.2 YPC and the third-most rushing scores (14). Chubb could also be healthier coming out of his bye, so he belongs in fantasy lineups.

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Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Start: Russell Wilson

Wilson has averaged 8.7 YPA, 245.7 passing yards and 2.0 touchdowns over three starts this season. He's fantasy's QB7 in points per game on the year, and he gets a prime pass-funnel matchup this week. Baltimore has ceded the second-fewest RB rushing yards per game (56.8) but the second most fantasy points to QBs. Ravens' opponents have the highest PROE (+6.8%) by a wide margin. Wilson is a top-10 QB this week in a fast-paced matchup against a carnival opponent.

Sit Najee Harris, who's losing touches to Jaylen Warren and gets a tough matchup. Harris remains Pittsburgh's lead back, but he's played fewer than 50% of the snaps in three of four games since Warren returned. The Ravens have ceded an NFL-low 3.4 YPC, so Harris' expectations should be tempered this week. Watch Warren's practice report though, as he popped up with a back injury.

Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans

Sit: Tony Pollard

Pollard’s snap share dropped to 53% during Tyjae Spears’ return last week, including splitting snaps evenly in the red zone. Pollard’s route participation (45%) was his lowest since Week 1. He remained limited by his foot injury in Thursday’s practice, and Pollard has a tough matchup this week. Minnesota has allowed the fourth-fewest YPC (3.8) and the second-fewest touchdown runs (four) this season. Tennessee has a lowly 17.5-point implied team total, so explore alternatives to Pollard if possible.

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets

Sit: Josh Downs

Downs had his best fantasy game of the season with Anthony Richardson, but Indy's QB switch is still a downgrade. Downs' targets per game drop from 10.0 with Joe Flacco to 6.5 with Richardson this season, and his receptions per game fall from 7.3 to 4.0. Volume and accuracy are issues, as is this week's matchup. The Jets have allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, including the sixth-fewest to the slot.

New York’s defense has unquestionably fallen since firing Robert Saleh (they missed a mere 20 tackles last week), but the Jets have yielded just one passing TD over the last three games. Michael Pittman Jr. has also returned to a full practice this week. Downs deserves bench consideration with Richardson back starting in an outdoor matchup against a strong secondary.

Atlanta Falcons @ Denver Broncos

Start: Bo Nix

Nix has been the QB7 in fantasy points per game since Week 4, averaging nearly as many fantasy points (20.4) as Josh Allen (20.7) over that six-game span. After attempting seven passes inside the 10-yard line over his first seven games, Nix has 11 over his last three. Nix ranks fourth among all quarterbacks in carries inside the five and expected fantasy points this season, behind only Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy and Lamar Jackson.

The Broncos get a Falcons defense allowing the 10th-fewest fantasy points to running backs but the seventh-most to quarterbacks. Denver has a big advantage up front (LT Garrett Bolles hasn't given up a single pressure over the last four weeks) against an Atlanta front that just became the first defense in the Super Bowl era to fail to record 10 sacks over its first 10 games.

Nix is a borderline top-five QB in a fast-paced matchup this week.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

Start: Jauan Jennings

Jennings led San Francisco in routes run, targets, catches, air yards and receiving yards during his first game without Brandon Aiyuk last week. He had the league's sixth-highest first-read target share (38.5%), and Brock Purdy owns the league's fourth-best Passer Rating (134.5) when targeting Jennings. He ranks second in the NFL in yards per route run, eighth in fantasy points per route run and 10th among 117 pass catchers in ESPN's Receiving Score.

Jennings owns a 32% TPRR with Aiyuk off the field, and he's now replaced BA as the 49ers' "X" receiver. Jennings erupted for 41 fantasy points in Week 3 with Deebo Samuel Sr. out — the only other game in which he's acted as SF's WR2. Jennings isn't Terrell Owens 2.0, but he can clearly play; he'll now see a much bigger opportunity on a potent offense due for major red-zone regression.

Jennings ranks second in yards per route run versus press coverage, which Seattle uses at the league's fifth-highest rate. The Seahawks have ceded the 10th-most fantasy points to wide receivers, and the 49ers are projected to score 28.5 points this week. Jennings suffered a reportedly mild ankle sprain in practice Thursday, so monitor his status. Should Jennings sit, Ricky Pearsall becomes a top-25 WR this week.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills

Start: Kareem Hunt

Hunt has just one explosive rush (15+ yards) over 125 carries and will lose touches once Isiah Pacheco returns, but he has Kansas City's backfield to himself once again Sunday. Hunt leads the league in touches per game (24.6) since entering the starting lineup in Week 5, and he's also the RB1 in expected fantasy points. Hunt saw 10 targets last week, and he's been given a whopping 13 opportunities inside the 5-yard line over the last four games. He's a true workhorse in a Patrick Mahomes offense.

Hunt gets a Buffalo defense allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks but the second-most to running backs this season, including the most targets (8.4) and receiving yards (54.5) per game. Hunt is a top-10 RB this week.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Los Angeles Chargers

Start: Justin Herbert

Herbert is getting a career-high 7.8 YPA with an 11:1 TD:INT ratio, but volume has been a problem for his fantasy production. The Chargers rank 30th in pass plays per game thanks to a favorable schedule that's been loaded with low projected totals. Los Angeles has run just three plays all season while trailing by double digits. But LA's upcoming matchups should feature more shootouts, starting Sunday.

The Bengals have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to running backs but the fifth-most to quarterbacks. Joe Burrow is playing well and should finally provide pushback in a matchup with a 47.5-point total. The Chargers are one of just nine teams with a positive pass rate over expectation over the last month, as Los Angeles has thrown decidedly more since its bye.

Herbert is a borderline top-five QB this week.

Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys

Sit: Rico Dowdle & Jake Ferguson

Cooper Rush lost as many fumbles (2.0) as he got yards per pass attempt while replacing Dak Prescott last week. It was the fewest passing yards in a game with at least 20 attempts since 2015. Rush finished with a completion percentage over expectation (-13.5) in the eighth percentile despite an average depth of target of just 6.4 yards (18th percentile). Dallas had 49 net passing yards on 26 attempts. And Trey Lance is apparently even worse while remaining QB2.

Dowdle should see all the touches he can handle; his competition is a 29-year-old Ezekiel Elliott who's getting 3.2 YPC and lost a fumble into the end zone last week. But he's saddled by Dallas' offense and gets a Houston defense yielding the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. The Cowboys have trailed by double digits for a league-high 42.4% of their offensive snaps and are 7.5-point underdogs, so game script could also be a problem for Dowdle on Monday night.

Ferguson has the second most targets (57) without catching a touchdown in the league. The tight end struggled to convert RZ looks into scores last season and now has Rush as his QB, so TD regression may not be coming. The Cowboys have a lowly 17.5-point implied total this week, and the Texans have allowed NFL-lows in receptions per game (2.7) and receiving yards per game (24.7!) against tight ends this season. Ferguson sports just a 16% target share over his last four games, so he belongs on fantasy benches Monday night.