Nevada election 2024: Current polls, history and why the state's results matter

With the 2024 presidential election just one day away, Nevada is considered one of the seven key swing states that could decide the race.

And polls out of the Silver State show it's a toss-up between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Three websites that aggregate battleground state surveys — the Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times — each have Harris and Trump separated by less than 1 percentage point.

🗳 Key races

In addition to the presidential contest, Nevada is home to a key downballot race between Sen. Jacky Rosen, a Democrat, and Republican Sam Brown that may help decide control of the U.S. Senate:

Recent polls had Rosen, the incumbent, leading Brown by about 9 percentage points.

↩️ Past election history

The results of the past three presidential elections in Nevada are as follows:

2020: Joe Biden (D) defeated Donald Trump (R) by 2.39%

2016: Hillary Clinton (D) defeated Donald Trump (R) by 2.42%

2012: Barack Obama (D) defeated Mitt Romney (R) by 6.68%

📈 Which way the state is trending

Nevada has voted for Democratic candidates in the past four presidential elections (and in six of the past eight), but the margin of victory has been shrinking. In 2008, Barack Obama won Nevada by more than 12 percentage points. In 2012, he won it by less than 7 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won Nevada by less than 3 points (2.42%) over Trump. In 2020, Joe Biden carried Nevada by just 2.39%.

📌 Why it matters

In 2016, Trump became the first Republican to win the presidency without Nevada since William Howard Taft in 1908.

🗣️ What do you think?