Snagging Shohei Ohtani's 50th home run ball could be life-changing for a fan

For some lucky baseball fan, buying an outfield ticket to an upcoming Los Angeles Dodgers game could turn out to be a life-altering purchase. The equivalent of a housing down payment — dependent on the market, of course — could come hurtling out of the sky.

As the Dodgers begin a seven-game trip in Atlanta on Friday night, Shohei Ohtani is on the precipice of a feat never accomplished before in Major League Baseball history The Japanese superstar is now three home runs and two stolen bases shy of producing the sport's first 50-50 season.

Sports memorabilia experts told Yahoo Sports that the home run ball that cements Ohtani as the inaugural member of baseball’s 50-50 club could be worth six figures to the fan who snares it. The value of the ball won’t change, they say, whether Ohtani’s 50th home run comes before his 50th stolen base or after.

The 50th home run ball “could fetch upwards of $200,000” at auction, according to Brahm Wachter, head of modern collectables at Sotheby’s. Chris Ivy, director of sports collectibles at Heritage Auctions, wrote that he’d conservatively estimate the ball’s value “at a nice round number like $100,000+ and expect it to storm past that figure, likely by multiples.”

Those numbers reflect the popularity of Ohtani and the rarity of his potential achievement. Only five other major leaguers have ever amassed 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases in a single season. Before Ohtani, the closest anyone has come to the 50-50 milestone is Atlanta’s Ronald Acuña Jr., who last year slugged 41 home runs and swiped 73 bases.

“It’s never easy to predict the price at auction of a piece without any comps to consider, but that’s also what makes it the ideal auction piece,” Ivy said. “If it happens, it will be fair to consider it among the top five greatest single-season achievements in baseball history.”

Savvy ballhawks who have studied Ohtani's spray chart already know that he has hit most of his 218 career home runs to right or center field. Glove-toting fans seated just above the right- or center-field wall will have the best odds to snag a piece of history.

The secondary ticket market for the Dodgers’ four-game series in Atlanta reflects that fans who want those seats will have to pay a premium. The StubHub or SeatGeek list price for tickets above the right-field wall at Atlanta’s Truist Park is often several hundred dollars. Similar or better seats in foul territory are priced much cheaper.

History underscores the potential for chaos in the outfield bleachers whenever ownership of a coveted home run ball is at stake. Two years ago, the battle for Aaron Judge's 60th home run ball sparked a dogpile of grown men scrambling to scoop it off the ground. Then there's Barry Bonds' single-season record 73rd home run ball in 2001, the one that infamously resulted in a lawsuit between the fan who initially caught it and the one who later picked it up after the first fan was immediately tackled and dropped it.

A California court ultimately ruled that Alex Popov and Patrick Hayashi had a legal right to the ball and that the best solution was for them to split the proceeds evenly. The ball, once estimated to be worth more than $1 million, sold for a bargain $450,000 in 2003.

When asked by Yahoo Sports whether the Braves or Marlins intend to station extra security in the outfield stands or take any other precautions as Ohtani approaches 50-50, spokespeople for both teams did not respond.

In recent years, several fans have chosen to relinquish the prized souvenirs they've recovered. The college student who emerged from the scrum with Judge's 60th home run ball gave the ball back to the Yankees slugger in return for a clubhouse meet-and-greet and some signed memorabilia. A Tampa Bay Buccaneers fan made a similar decision to return a piece of history in October 2021 after Mike Evans absentmindedly handed over Tom Brady's 600th career touchdown pass.

Predictably, not every fan is so generous. A Dodgers fan declined Albert Pujols' request to give back his 700th home run ball in 2022 and later sold it at auction for $360,000. That same year, a Dallas man who caught Judge's 62nd home run ball auctioned it off for $1.5 million.

The walk-off grand slam that secured Ohtani's place in the 40-40 club last month might have fetched Tony Voda a six-figure return had the star-crossed Dodgers fan not dropped the ball. Another fan bumped Voda as he raised his left hand to catch the ball, causing it to carom off the edge of his rainbow-colored glove and bounce back onto the field.

A heartbroken Voda immediately placed his hands on his head as outfielder Jose Siri retrieved the ball and threw it elsewhere in the stands. Afterward, in a brief YouTube video that Voda posted, he lamented being "inches away from having history."