Yahoo Sports AM: Predicting the future

⚾️ Sasaki officially posted: Japanese phenom Rōki Sasaki, 23, was posted on Monday, kicking off a 45-day race for MLB teams to sign the right-handed flamethrower.

🏈 Bengals 27, Cowboys 20: Joe Burrow (369 yards, 3 TD, INT) and Ja'Marr Chase (14 catches, 177 yards, 2 TD) dominated for Cincinnati, who took advantage of a late Cowboys blunder to win on "MNF."

🏀 KAT stays hot: Karl-Anthony Towns (24-15) had his 13th straight double-double (longest active streak in the league) in the Knicks' 113-108 win over the Raptors in Monday's only NBA action.

⚽️ Angel City sacks coach: Angel City FC fired Becki Tweed a year after she was a finalist for NWSL Coach of the Year. Houston and San Diego also have coaching vacancies.

🏀 The most important AP poll of the season

It's only December, but history tells usone of the top 12 teams in this week's men's AP poll will win the national championship.

Early congratulations, Tennessee,* Auburn, Iowa State and Duke! Start mapping out the parade route, Kentucky, Marquette, Alabama and Gonzaga! Make room for a banner in the rafters, Florida, Kansas, Purdue and Oregon!

— Jeff Eisenberg, Yahoo Sports

The streak: The past 20 national champions were all ranked in the top 12 of their respective season's Week 6 AP poll.

2023-24: UConn (Week 6 rank: 5)

2022-23: UConn (3)

2021-22: Kansas (7)

2020-21: Baylor (2)

2019-20: COVID

2018-19: Virginia (6)

2017-18: Villanova (1)

2016-17: UNC (7)

2015-16: Villanova (12)

2014-15: Duke (2)

2013-14: UConn (9)

2012-13: Louisville (6)

2011-12: Kentucky (3)

2010-11: UConn (4)

2009-10: Duke (7)

2008-09: UNC (1)

2007-08: Kansas (3)

2006-07: Florida (5)

2005-06: Florida (7)

2004-05: UNC (5)

2003-04: UConn (1)

By the numbers: During this time, the average Week 6 ranking of the eventual champion was 4.8. No other week was a better barometer; not even the final AP poll before the NCAA tournament, where the soon-to-be champs had an average ranking of 5.6.

The most recent outliers: The last national champion that didn't crack the Week 6 AP top 12 was the 2002-03 Syracuse squad, which wasn't ranked until mid-January but caught fire thanks to the heroics of Carmelo Anthony, Hakim Warrick and Gerry McNamara.

Before that, you have to go all the way back to Danny Manning's 1987-88 Kansas team (aka. "Danny and the Miracles").

The 11-loss Jayhawks earned that nickname because of their improbable tournament run as a No. 6 seed.

Looking ahead… Who's the most likely team to defy 20-plus years of polling history and go from outside the Top 12 this week to cutting down the nets in April? The betting odds say it's No. 18 UConn, which has steadied itself (beat Baylor and Texas) after imploding in Maui last month (three losses to unranked teams).

*Big week for the Vols: Tennessee took the No. 1 spot in the men's AP poll and returned to the women's AP Top 25 after the longest drought in program history.

⚾️ Soto makes Ohtani look like a bargain

In the wake of Juan Soto's 15-year, $765 million deal with the Mets, Shohei Ohtani's uniquely structured 10-year, $700 million pact with the Dodgers looks like an epic bargain.

As a reminder: Ohtani will take home just $2 million per year during his playing tenure with the Dodgers ($20 million total). The other $680 million will be doled out from 2034 to 2043, in $68 million annual increments.

That lowers the present-day value of Ohtani's contract from $700 million to somewhere in the $460 million range, depending on the rate of inflation.

Soto's deal features no deferred money and a $75 million signing bonus. The value really is $765 million, more than $300 million beyond Ohtani's estimated figure.

Between the lines: The advertising windfall that accompanies Ohtani essentially pays for the contract, which is not something that can be said for Soto.

From Yahoo Sports' Jake Mintz:

A recent report from Jack Harris of the L.A. Times estimated that the Dodgers earned nine figures worth of revenue from their new star in 2024. … As many experts predicted, the advertising windfall that accompanies Ohtani essentially pays for the contract.

Soto, an extremely popular player, doesn't have nearly that level of influence. His arrival in Queens will sell tickets and invigorate the fan base, yes. But it will not put hundreds of millions of dollars in ad revenue per year back into the Mets' pockets.

Such things matter little to Mets owner Steve Cohen, who is one of the richest people on Earth. But the dynamic provides a magnificent reminder that one year after the initial sticker shock, Ohtani's "$700 million" deal already looks like a bargain.

⚽️ UNC begins new era by winning it all... again

North Carolina beat Wake Forest, 1-0, on Monday to win the school's 22nd women's soccer national championship.

A new era: This is the Tar Heels' first title without head coach Anson Dorrance, who retired in August after establishing the program in 1979 and spending 45 seasons at the helm of one of America's greatest sports dynasties.* Damon Nahas took over on an interim basis and seems likely to keep the job permanently.

How do they keep doing this? Three legendary UNC coaches have retired in the last four years, and all three of their programs advanced to the national championship game in their first seasons without them.

Men's basketball: Roy Williams retired in 2021 as one of college basketball's winningest coaches. His successor, Hubert Davis, led the Tar Heels to the 2022 title game, where they lost to Kansas.

Field hockey: Karen Shelton retired in 2022 after 42 seasons and a record 10 national titles. Her former player and successor, Erin Matson, then led UNC to the 2023 national title at age 23.

*The dynasty: Dorrance built an absolute juggernaut in Chapel Hill, where he compiled a 934-88-53 record and coached 55 future USWNT players. One of the wildest stats of all: There was a 25-year period from 1986-2010 (over 600 consecutive games) where UNC either won, tied or lost by only one goal.

📸 Photo gallery

Some of the best photos from the weekend...

Kansas City — Chiefs safety Justin Reid takes the field.

Abu Dhabi, U.A.E. — Lewis Hamilton does donuts on the track to celebrate his final race with Mercedes, where he won six titles in 12 years. He's headed to Ferrari next season.

Las Vegas — Michael Chiesa submits Max Griffin in a welterweight bout during UFC 310.

Porto Alegre, Brazil — Longtime Grêmio captain Pedro Geromel is thrown into the air by his teammates after his last match before retirement.

📆 Dec. 10, 2002: MJ vs. Pippen

22 years ago today, Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen faced off as opponents for the first and only time in their careers.

Role reversal: When the duo won six titles together in the '90s, MJ was Batman to Pippen's Robin. But this night belonged to Scottie and the Trail Blazers, who easily defeated Jordan's Wizards, 98-79.

Head-to-head: Both players scored 14 points, but the 37-year-old Pippen had a better overall game than Jordan, who would soon turn 40.

Pippen: 14 points (6-7 FG, 2-2 FT), 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, 1 block

Jordan: 14 points (6-10 FG, 2-2 FT), 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 1 block

"My mules were sick": Jordan was visibly frustrated by his teammates' effort and called them out after the game.

"I know Pip, and I know he wanted to come out and play well. Believe me, I wanted to come out and play well, too. His horses were ready, and my mules were sick. I have to take some razzing for the time being."

End of the road: Jordan retired at the end of the season. Pippen re-signed with Chicago the following year, but injuries limited him to just 23 games and he called it quits in 2004.

📺 Watchlist: NBA Cup knockouts

The NBA Cup knockout round* begins tonight on TNT, as four teams battle for spots in Saturday's semifinals in Las Vegas.

Magic at Bucks (7pm ET): Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the league in scoring (32.5 ppg), while Orlando has now lost both of their leading scorers (Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner) to torn obliques.

Mavericks at Thunder (9:30pm): Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (29.8 ppg) is the NBA's fourth-leading scorer and Luka Dončić (28.7 ppg) ranks fifth.

More to watch:

🏀 NCAAM: No. 1 Tennessee vs. Miami (6:30pm ET, ESPN); No. 14 Michigan vs. Arkansas (9pm, ESPN) … The 30th Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden.

⚽️ Champions League: Matchday 6 (12:45-3pm, Paramount+) … Nine games.

*Pregame reading: Let's break down the juicy quarterfinal matchups (Dan Devine, Yahoo Sports)

📺 "The Simpsons" trivia

"Monday Night Football" got "The Simpsons" treatment last night, with a real-time animated alternate broadcast featuring the Bengals and Cowboys in the cartoon world of Springfield.

Question: What is the name of Springfield's football team?

Hint: The name is chemistry-related, much like Springfield's minor league baseball team, the Isotopes.

Answer at the bottom.

🏈 College football NIT?

Fun idea to ponder: Now that college football has a postseason tournament, why not add another one for the next-best teams that don't make the 12-team CFP?

Trivia answer: Springfield Atoms

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